Crypto Markets Show Mixed Signals Amid Tariff Concerns and Rising Recession Fears
In an eventful 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market, VeThor (VTHO) surged by 37%, while Story Protocol’s IP token experienced a dramatic 20% drop and quick recovery. Traders are hoping that the worst of the tariffs-induced sell-offs are behind them, but uncertainty remains as the market adjusts to shifting dynamics.
Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a 3% decline, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remained largely unchanged over the past day. Despite a gradual easing of tariff concerns, growing fears of a U.S. recession have been reflected in betting markets, with odds of a recession in 2025 ranging between 40% to 60%, according to Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus.
Fan explained, “Prominent financial figures have started to issue warnings about an imminent recession, but sentiment often influences reality more than the actual economic conditions. As a result, cryptocurrency markets, which have seen more stability than equities, have benefitted from the risk-off trend. Bitcoin, in particular, is reclaiming some of its ‘store of value’ narrative amid this environment, with tariffs driving gold to all-time highs.”
In terms of overall market movement, the broad-based CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell by nearly 2%, with DOGE leading the losses. Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), and Cardano (ADA) saw losses of up to 2.5%, while Binance Coin (BNB) and XRP remained largely unchanged, as Bitcoin held steady at the $85,000 level.
Meanwhile, Mantra’s OM token rebounded by 20% after a sudden 90% drop within an hour on Sunday. The company’s CEO outlined a recovery plan following the sharp sell-off, though market participants remain cautious about the prospects of such a swift recovery. Story Protocol’s IP token also saw volatile movements, dropping by 20% before quickly rebounding by more than 30%, sparking concerns of another OM-like scenario.
VeThor (VTHO) saw an impressive 37% rally following the announcement that UFC President Dana White would join the project as a strategic advisor. This development boosted optimism for the token, especially among those hoping for greater mainstream adoption and recognition in the realm of real-world asset (RWA) solutions.
On the trading front, QCP Capital from Singapore noted in a Telegram broadcast that BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favor of puts until June, suggesting cautious sentiment in the near term. However, the firm also observed more constructive tones in longer-term positions, particularly with aggressive buying of BTC call options for March 2026, suggesting that traders are anticipating a recovery.
Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation between the $80,000 and $90,000 range indicates a “wait and see” approach, especially in relation to the tariff situation. Meanwhile, the $100,000 call option has become one of the most favored bets among mid-term traders, with a notional open interest nearing $1.2 billion.
Some market participants remain hopeful that the most turbulent period may be behind them. “The upward trend has been further supported by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to intervene and stabilize markets if needed due to tariffs,” said Jupiter Zheng, partner at HashKey Capital. “As the U.S. moves forward with trade talks, we are optimistic that the worst of the volatility is over.”
