Bitcoin Options Traders Zero in on $100K Target as Market Sentiment Shifts
Bitcoin’s options market is signaling a return of bullish conviction, with traders heavily favoring $100,000 call options amid signs of renewed optimism following recent political and economic volatility.
Open interest in the $100K strike has surged, now totaling nearly $1.2 billion in notional value, making it the most crowded trade on Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange.
The surge in bullish bets comes after bitcoin staged a recovery to over $84,000, rebounding from last week’s lows below $75,000. The turnaround followed a dramatic pivot from the Trump administration on its controversial tariff policies. After initially announcing sweeping import tariffs, including a 125% duty on Chinese tech products, the White House softened its stance — though mixed messaging continues to cloud the outlook.
Traders interpreted the back-and-forth as a sign of political capitulation, prompting a wave of bullish call buying and a sharp unwind of protective puts.
Deribit analysts described the moment as a “narrative reversal,” saying:
“Trump’s bond-market crisis forced a tariff walkback. The market flipped from defensive to aggressive, with traders dumping puts and chasing upside calls.”
Volatility Gauge Stabilizes
The once-skewed options market, which was heavily tilted toward downside protection, has now normalized. Data from Amberdata shows the 30-, 60-, and 90-day options skew has moved back above zero, signaling a shift away from fear and toward upside speculation. Last week, the seven-day skew dropped as low as -14%, showing extreme bearish bias — but that too has rebounded sharply.
Eyes Back on Six Figures
The $100,000 call isn’t just symbolic — it’s also the most significant concentration of capital in the BTC options market right now. That strike alone holds nearly $1.2 billion in open interest, with other popular bullish strikes ranging from $95K to $120K also seeing renewed interest.
Meanwhile, the most popular bearish hedge remains the $70K put, which holds about $982 million in open interest — a reminder that not all market participants are convinced the rally will stick.
Bitcoin’s next move will likely hinge on how macro and political factors evolve — especially whether Washington delivers more clarity or confusion in the weeks ahead.
