Polymarket Demonstrates High Accuracy in Predicting Global Events, Study Finds
A recent analysis has revealed that Polymarket boasts an impressive 90% accuracy rate in forecasting events one month in advance, with this figure rising to 94% just four hours before an event unfolds.
According to research compiled by New York-based data scientist Alex McCullough on a Dune dashboard, Polymarket functions as a highly reliable predictive tool for various events. McCullough examined historical data from the platform, filtering out markets where probabilities had already exceeded 90% or dropped below 10% after outcomes were known but not yet officially settled, ensuring a more precise assessment.
Understanding Polymarket’s Prediction Patterns
The study also identified a consistent but slight overestimation of probabilities across most prediction ranges. McCullough attributes this to cognitive biases such as herd mentality, acquiescence bias, low liquidity, and a preference for high-risk bets among participants.
Interestingly, longer-term prediction markets tend to appear more accurate, largely because they incorporate many highly improbable outcomes, making the correct predictions more apparent. In an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog, McCullough cited the example of Gavin Newsom’s potential presidential bid, a market with $54 million in volume during the last election. Given that Newsom was never a serious contender, his loss was an easily predictable outcome, artificially boosting the platform’s long-term accuracy.
Sports Betting and Short-Term Accuracy Spikes
In contrast, head-to-head sports betting markets provide a clearer measure of Polymarket’s predictive capabilities. These markets feature fewer extreme outliers—such as unlikely presidential candidates—resulting in a more balanced data set. McCullough’s research shows that accuracy improves significantly as an event nears, with notable spikes in precision closer to its conclusion.
The sports sector has become an increasingly dominant area for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion wagered on NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League outcomes, according to Polymarket Analytics.
Political Implications of Polymarket’s Forecasts
McCullough’s findings could be particularly relevant in Canada’s political landscape, where Polymarket currently shows Mark Carney, the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, holding a substantial lead over Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre. Interestingly, Polymarket’s odds indicate an even stronger lead for Carney than traditional poll aggregators suggest, potentially shaping political discourse in Ottawa.
