Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Shrinks to $495, Erasing ‘Trump Bump’ Gains
The market appears to have moved past the notion that a pro-crypto President significantly benefits the industry, with broader macroeconomic factors now taking the lead in influencing prices.
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 Presidential election, bullish sentiment briefly surged in the crypto market. However, that optimism has now faded, as indicated by a key metric linked to CME bitcoin (BTC) futures.
This metric—the spread between “continuous” next-month and front-month standard BTC futures—has narrowed to $495, the lowest level since Nov. 5. According to TradingView data, the spread had peaked at $1,705 on Dec. 17. In essence, the market has now fully retraced the post-election rally, signaling a cooling bullish outlook.
“The tightening spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could indicate that traders are dialing back their price expectations,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in a statement to CoinDesk.
The fading “Trump bump” suggests the market has shifted focus from political narratives to macroeconomic trends as the primary driver of price action.
“We’ve seen a significant repricing of the front contract basis since early March. This reflects tempered short-term expectations, as the main catalyst behind the previous rally—the election of President Trump—has now been fully priced in,” Erdösi added.
Market trends confirm this shift. Since early February, Bitcoin has declined by 20%, while the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, has fallen 8%. This downturn has been driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical uncertainties, Trump’s tariff policies, and concerns about inflation and economic growth.
Adding to the market’s disappointment was the lack of new Bitcoin purchases in Trump’s recently announced Strategic Digital Asset Reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve comprising BTC seized in enforcement actions.
“The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement was not what many in the market expected. There was hope for new Bitcoin purchases, but instead, the administration committed to holding onto confiscated BTC without selling it. While this is a positive step, it still led to a sharp price drop,” Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics, told CoinDesk.
Futures Market Remains in Contango
Despite the narrowing spread between next-month and front-month CME futures contracts, the overall market structure remains in contango—where longer-dated futures trade at a premium to shorter-term contracts. This is a typical market phenomenon influenced by factors such as storage, financing costs, and expectations of future price increases.
“The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests that the recent price action is driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than broader market contagion,” Erdösi noted.
While macroeconomic conditions and policy decisions continue to shape the market, traders will be closely watching for new developments that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.
