Bitcoin Could See $5K Swing Post-White House Crypto Summit, STS Digital Warns
Options pricing on Deribit suggests heightened volatility for BTC, ETH, and SOL following Friday’s event.
Traders should brace for a turbulent weekend, as Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a price swing of nearly $5,000 following the White House crypto summit, according to an analysis by digital asset trading firm STS Digital.
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with top crypto industry leaders—including executives from Coinbase, Chainlink, and Exodus—at Friday’s summit, where he is expected to outline his administration’s stance on digital assets.
Rumors are swirling that Trump may unveil a strategic Bitcoin reserve, shifting from earlier indications that the U.S. might hold a basket of digital assets, including XRP, Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin.
Options Market Signals Volatility
Options pricing on Deribit suggests traders are preparing for major market movements in response to the summit.
“Options markets are reflecting significant nerves and low liquidity heading into the weekend,” said Jeff Anderson, Head of Asia at STS Digital. He noted a wide gap in implied volatility (IV) between Friday and Saturday expirations, highlighting uncertainty surrounding the summit’s outcome.
Implied volatility—a key options market metric—indicates how much traders anticipate price fluctuations. As of early Thursday:
- BTC options expiring Friday had an annualized IV of 56%,
- BTC options expiring Saturday jumped to 80% IV, signaling expectations for increased price swings post-summit.
Similar patterns emerged for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) options, reflecting elevated market uncertainty.
What’s Next?
Analysis suggests a 5.5% BTC price move—equivalent to nearly $5K in either direction—between Friday 08:00 UTC and Saturday 08:00 UTC. ETH and SOL traders can expect $135 and $13 swings, respectively.
However, Anderson cautioned that such high volatility expectations often fail to materialize, adding:
“In crypto, expected volatility often exceeds reality. However, current breakevens don’t seem excessive, and options remain the safest play for directional bets in this environment.”
Post-summit, volatility levels could decline, as uncertainty fades and traders reposition for the next major event.
