Analysts Eye CME Futures Gap Below $80K as Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10% this week, sliding to $86,300 and breaking out of its prolonged trading range between $90,000 and $110,000.
With this bearish breakdown, traders are now closely analyzing key support levels, particularly a “runaway gap” in CME Bitcoin futures below $80,000, which has remained unfilled for three months.
A gap forms on a price chart when there is a blank space between one day’s closing price and the next day’s opening price, signaling no trading activity in between. When this gap appears in an ongoing trend, it is referred to as a runaway or continuation gap.
Unlike Bitcoin’s spot market, which operates 24/7, CME Bitcoin futures trade 23 hours a day from Sunday to Friday, closing briefly for daily maintenance. A notable gap emerged on Nov. 5, the day after President Donald Trump’s election victory, when futures opened at $81,210—significantly above the previous day’s high of $77,930.
Market participants generally believe that price gaps eventually get filled as traders push the asset back into previously untraded territory.
“Historically, CME gaps tend to be filled, though the timing is unpredictable,” Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, said in a Telegram message. “Recent unexpected events have driven this sharp downward movement, and without them, we might not be focusing on the CME gap at all.”
Sondergaard noted that risk indicators at Nansen have recently turned “risk-off,” increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin could dip further to fill the gap.
However, technical analysis suggests that not all gaps behave the same way. While common and exhaustion gaps—often seen during regular trading or trend reversals—are usually filled quickly, runaway gaps are less likely to be revisited.
Adding to the uncertainty, a new gap has formed between Feb. 24 and Feb. 25 as Bitcoin plunged below its previous consolidation range. Which gap gets filled first remains an open question for traders.
