Bitcoin Faces $5 Billion Options Expiry Amid Market Volatility
Over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts are set to expire on Deribit this Friday at 08:00 UTC, adding to the heightened turbulence in the crypto market.
Bitcoin’s extended consolidation phase had kept Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) on a steady decline throughout 2025. However, the recent sharp drop in BTC prices caused DVOL to spike to 52 before settling back below 50, signaling a brief surge in market uncertainty.
With BTC slipping below $90,000, a significant portion of these options contracts have been pushed out-of-the-money (OTM), leaving traders with substantial unrealized losses.
Options contracts grant the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price before expiration.
According to Deribit data, approximately $3.9 billion (78%) of the expiring options are OTM, meaning they will expire worthless. Nearly all call options (bullish bets) are now OTM due to Bitcoin’s recent price decline, leaving investors with significant unrealized losses.
Meanwhile, the remaining $1.1 billion (22%) of options are in-the-money (ITM), largely dominated by put options. ITM puts hold value as their strike prices are above the current spot price, offering some relief to bearish traders.
However, the max pain price for this expiry sits at $98,000—nearly $10,000 higher than Bitcoin’s current spot price. Max pain refers to the price level where option sellers (typically institutions) stand to maximize profits while buyers suffer the most losses.
With such a large gap between BTC’s spot price and max pain, some analysts believe that market makers may attempt to push Bitcoin’s price closer to the $98,000 level to minimize their exposure.
“Bitcoin options traders should pay close attention as the month comes to an end. Max pain for February 28 is set at $98,000, with a massive $5 billion in notional value at stake. With the highest open interest clustered here, market makers may try to keep BTC near this level, leading to increased volatility,” PowerTrade said on X.
With the options expiry approaching, all eyes are on whether the max pain theory will play out in the market once again.
