Bitcoin Poised for Major Move as Volatility Hits Multi-Year Lows
Bitcoin (BTC), typically known for its wild price swings, has been unusually stable in recent months, signaling that a significant move may be on the horizon. Since late November, the leading cryptocurrency has been locked in a tight trading range between $91,000 and $109,000, with volatility compressing to some of the lowest levels seen in years.
Data from Glassnode highlights this trend, showing that Bitcoin’s two-week realized volatility—an indicator that measures how much the asset’s price has fluctuated over the past 14 days on an annualized basis—has dropped to 32%, a level not seen in years. Similarly, options traders are expecting minimal movement, with one-month implied volatility falling below 50%—another multi-year low.
To further illustrate how tight Bitcoin’s price action has been, analyst Checkmate’s “Choppiness Index” indicates that, on a weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is experiencing its most stagnant trading range since 2015. This prolonged sideways movement suggests that the market is primed for a breakout, though the direction remains uncertain.
Historically, periods of extremely low volatility tend to be followed by explosive price action. The longer Bitcoin consolidates, the sharper the eventual breakout—whether upward or downward. While traders and investors remain on edge, one thing is clear: Bitcoin won’t stay in this range forever. A major move is coming; it’s just a matter of time.
