Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty has surged to an all-time high of 114.7 trillion (T) following a 5.6% upward adjustment over the weekend, according to CoinWarz. This spike coincides with a key market signal: the Hash Ribbon metric indicating miner capitulation, which historically suggests a local bottom for bitcoin’s price.
Hash Ribbon, a well-known market indicator, signals a miner capitulation event when mining costs surpass profitability. Data from Glassnode shows that miner capitulation began in early February, coinciding with a dip in bitcoin’s price of more than 4% for the month. Historically, when Hash Ribbon points to capitulation, it often marks a local price bottom for bitcoin.
If this trend continues, bitcoin’s price could be nearing a bottom around $91,000. The last similar capitulation signal appeared in October 2024, just before bitcoin experienced a 50% surge.
The increase in mining difficulty stems from bitcoin’s rising hash rate, which reached an all-time high on February 4. Mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to maintain an average block time of 10 minutes. As the difficulty rises, mining becomes more competitive, creating additional pressure on miners. January’s production data highlights this strain, with Riot Platforms (RIOT) being the only major public miner to report a production increase month-over-month.
