Bitcoin Struggles While Gold Surges Ahead of Key U.S. Jobs Report
Bitcoin (BTC) remains sluggish as on-chain activity weakens, while gold continues to rally ahead of the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
Bitcoin Lacks Momentum Amid Valuation Concerns
BTC is currently hovering just above $98,000, but traders remain cautious amid concerns that the asset is overvalued. Analysis from CryptoQuant suggests bitcoin’s fair value ranges between $48,000 and $95,000, signaling potential downside risk.
Additionally, on-chain data paints a bleak picture, with Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index plummeting 15% from its November peak to 3,760 points—the lowest level in over a year. Daily transactions have dropped a staggering 53% from September’s all-time high of 734,000 to just 346,000, further weighing on market sentiment.
Despite recovering from an early-week dip, BTC has struggled to break past the $100,000 mark. Some of the uncertainty stems from the Trump administration’s slow pace in implementing its proposed Bitcoin strategic reserve. Even a recent endorsement from Eric Trump, who encouraged BTC investments through World Liberty Financial, failed to generate significant market excitement.
Gold Continues to Shine
In contrast, gold remains a standout performer, surging over 9% year-to-date and hitting a record high of $2,882 per ounce, according to TradingView data. With a 2.32% increase this week alone, the precious metal is on track for its sixth consecutive weekly gain.
UBS analysts highlight that gold’s continued rise underscores its role as a safe-haven asset, attracting investors who seek stability amid economic uncertainties. With Bitcoin struggling to maintain momentum, capital appears to be flowing toward traditional stores of value.
Jobs Report Looms Large
All eyes are now on Friday’s NFP report, which will provide insights into U.S. employment trends for January. Economists surveyed by FXStreet expect job growth to slow to 170,000 from December’s 256,000, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, mirroring December’s pace.
A weaker-than-expected report could prompt traders to anticipate faster Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets like stocks and bitcoin. Additionally, with the Trump administration actively working to lower Treasury yields, a sharp drop in the 10-year yield could further support risk-on sentiment.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected employment data—especially amid ongoing tariff discussions—could complicate the Fed’s policy outlook and lead to increased market caution, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.
