Bitcoin Remains Consistent with Previous Cycles Despite U.S. Tariff Uncertainty
Despite ongoing volatility sparked by escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and its neighboring countries, as well as China, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to mirror the trajectory of its 2017 cycle.
Bitcoin has risen approximately 525% from its cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022. In comparison, at the same point in the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin had gained 533%. This suggests that, despite the market’s recent turbulence, Bitcoin is maintaining a similar performance trajectory as previous cycles.
Another way to assess Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is by measuring its returns from prior all-time highs. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin reached its market peak in April 2021 at around $64,000, though its nominal all-time high occurred in November 2021, reaching $69,000. Many on-chain indicators indicate that April 2021 was the true top of that cycle.
Bitcoin’s consistency in tracking previous cycles remains strong, even with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. For the last 2.5 months, Bitcoin has remained confined within a $90,000 to $109,000 range, testing both the upper and lower bounds of this trading channel despite market volatility. Previous research by CoinDesk identified $91,000 as a local bottom for Bitcoin, further supporting its resilience amid current challenges.
