Despite reassurances from David Sacks, Donald Trump’s crypto czar, Polymarket remains skeptical about the creation of a national Bitcoin (BTC) reserve. The prediction market currently places only a 16% probability that Trump will order the establishment of a BTC reserve within the first 100 days of his potential administration, even after Sacks confirmed the administration is exploring the idea.
In a recent appearance on Fox News, Sacks stated, “President Trump has asked us to study that issue, so we are not ready to comment on it yet. But it’s one of the things our working groups are going to look at.” Sacks’ comments follow a proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican, who is known for her pro-Bitcoin stance. Lummis submitted a separate bill to create a Bitcoin reserve, which aims to establish a “Bitcoin Purchase Program” with the goal of acquiring up to 200,000 BTC annually over five years, partially funded by revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold.
The bill is currently under review by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Notably, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), has voiced strong support for such a move, arguing that it would help protect the U.S. dollar. Saylor stated, “The best way to protect the dollar is to make sure you retire the debt and become rich. The next best way to protect the dollar is to make sure that if anybody ever considers a different capital asset other than the treasury bill, you own it.”
In a separate development, Texas has also expressed plans to create its own strategic Bitcoin reserve. Polymarket bettors are more optimistic about this, giving it a 53% chance that the state will pass legislation for the reserve in 2025.
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