David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, has noted a growing divide between the outlooks of traders and high-net-worth individuals in the crypto market. While bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $90,000-$95,000 range—down over 10% from its recent all-time high—there is an increasing contrast in sentiment. Traders, relying on technical analysis, believe that bitcoin may be due for another price drop, whereas long-term investors remain confident that the bull run is far from over.
Siemer, whose firm manages assets for funds and high-net-worth individuals, pointed out this stark contrast in an interview with CoinDesk. “In my 14 years of owning bitcoin, I’ve never seen a divide like this,” Siemer remarked. “Traders are worried, hedged, and generally neutral or bearish, while long-term investors are incredibly bullish.”
Siemer himself is among those holding an optimistic outlook. He predicts a significant rise in bitcoin’s value, with a potential price of $200,000 per bitcoin this year. “Do I think $1 million per coin is possible in my lifetime? Absolutely,” Siemer said. “But not immediately, not in the next year. The people I know who are well-connected and informed are all bullish. A lot is going to happen in the next six months that most people don’t realize.”
One of the key factors driving this bullish sentiment, according to Siemer, is the growing adoption of crypto in several major jurisdictions. Countries such as the U.S., Russia, Singapore, the UAE, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and some European nations are poised to make significant moves in favor of crypto. “These moves will likely benefit their private sectors,” Siemer explained. “In places like Japan and Singapore, people trust their governments. When the government says it’s okay, it really is okay.”
The success of U.S.-based spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also been a driving force behind the renewed interest in crypto. According to Siemer, these ETFs have forced financial institutions globally to develop more competitive products, such as multi-token yield funds, to capture the liquidity lost to BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF. “The ETFs in the U.S. crushed bitcoin ETPs worldwide,” Siemer said. “Many of those products had high fees, and they were wiped out.”
As for regulatory developments, Siemer believes regulators will largely be supportive of the crypto industry. He specifically pointed to the potential for the European Union to implement a more favorable version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). Additionally, Siemer sees the likelihood of new strategic bitcoin reserves being created, especially in countries other than the U.S. While he remains hopeful for U.S. involvement, he noted that several states, including Texas, Ohio, and Wyoming, are already exploring the creation of their own reserves.
When asked about the federal government’s stance, Siemer estimated the chances of a U.S. bitcoin reserve at just above 50%. This is due in part to the U.S. already holding nearly $19 billion in bitcoin. “That’s a solid start for a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer noted. “All they have to do is not sell it. It’s far more palatable for taxpayers than if they were to buy $10 billion worth of bitcoin.”
