Bitcoin Up Over 36% in November, Poised for All-Time Highs
Bitcoin has surged over 36% in November, marking one of its strongest months in recent years. With just one trading day left in the month, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s monthly performance, which is set to be the fourth-best since October 2021, according to CoinGlass data.
The November rise, currently at 36%, follows only February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%), and October 2021 (40%) in terms of monthly gains. Bitcoin’s impressive performance this month is partly attributed to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, which saw Donald Trump secure a victory.
Bitcoin is also closing in on the key psychological $100,000 level, now less than 4% away. Following the expiration of $9 billion worth of Bitcoin options, the token has seen a slight upward push, reaching over $96,000. However, there are still two more days left in the month for Bitcoin to potentially surpass this milestone.
Looking at the quarterly performance, Bitcoin is up 51% so far, with December yet to come. Historically, Bitcoin tends to return around 5% in December. If Bitcoin continues this trend, Q4 2024 will be the strongest quarter since Q1, which saw a remarkable 69% gain.
Analysts are increasingly confident that Bitcoin is on track to break through $100,000 and could close out the month at an all-time high. Caleb Franzen, a well-known analyst, suggests that Bitcoin’s current momentum indicates there is still more room for growth. “BTCUSD monthly chart with the RSI indicator shows Bitcoin bull markets often peak with the RSI above 90, and the current level is only 75,” Franzen notes. “Historically, each bull market has peaked with a lower RSI, suggesting momentum isn’t yet overheated and there is more upside to be squeezed in the coming months.”
Similar Market Structure to Q4 2020
Bitcoin’s market structure resembles Q4 2020, when strong rallies in October and November were followed by a brief correction during Thanksgiving. That period marked the moment Bitcoin decisively broke through the psychological $10,000 barrier, eventually reaching $60,000 by April 2021.
Glassnode data suggests that when Bitcoin is trading above its short-term holder realized price (STHRP), it’s typically a sign of a bull market. In Q4 2020, Bitcoin used this support level as a base for its rise. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin may keep rising while maintaining the STHRP as support.
STHRP reflects the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held outside of exchange reserves, specifically those that have been moved in the last 155 days. These are considered the coins most likely to be spent. In contrast, long-term holder realized price (LTHRP) represents the average price of Bitcoin held for longer than 155 days, and these coins are less likely to be spent.
A growing divergence between the realized price and LTHRP signals that new market participants are entering the space, while long-term holders may be taking profits or spending their holdings. This trend could suggest continued upward momentum for Bitcoin as new buyers enter the market while existing holders realize gains.
$100,000 on the Horizon?
A small but interesting data point suggests that Bitcoin could hit the $100,000 mark as early as November 29. Bitcoin’s historical milestones—such as reaching $1,000 on November 27, 2013, and $10,000 four years later—show a potential pattern of rapid price growth. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark exactly seven years after its $10,000 milestone.
With favorable market conditions, strong performance indicators, and growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s path toward $100,000 and beyond looks more promising than ever.
