ARK Invest Analyst Projects Bitcoin’s Trajectory Amid Bull Market Dynamics
Bitcoin’s current rally is far from over, according to ARK Invest Research Associate David Puell, who believes we are “about 55% to 65% of the way” through the ongoing bull market. Speaking to CoinDesk, Puell shared insights on Bitcoin’s price action and its potential path forward.
After briefly approaching the $100,000 milestone, Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to $95,000. However, Puell suggests this pullback is merely a pause before the cryptocurrency reaches new highs. “We’re anticipating price targets of $104,000 to $124,000 by the end of the year,” Puell said, emphasizing that while this isn’t formal investment advice, the price trends thus far align with these projections.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Cycles
Puell’s forecasts are grounded in Bitcoin’s seasonality — patterns observed during previous bull markets — and on-chain metrics, which provide data on the behavior of market participants. He explained that these cycles are still influencing Bitcoin’s price movements, with no strong evidence suggesting otherwise.
“We’re in the middle of the bull market,” Puell noted, estimating that the current cycle top could range between $126,000 and $134,000 based on existing metrics. He added that these targets could adjust upward if market momentum intensifies.
Diminishing Returns for Bitcoin?
The projections support the notion that Bitcoin’s returns are tapering as the asset matures. For instance, a peak of $134,000 would mean Bitcoin has doubled its valuation from the $69,000 high of 2021. By comparison, the 2021 rally tripled Bitcoin’s price from its 2017 peak. While ARK Invest is prepared for this trend of diminishing returns, Puell emphasized that current data remains inconclusive.
Long-Term Targets Remain Bullish
Earlier this year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood outlined an ambitious forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a potential valuation of $1 million to $1.5 million by 2030, with a baseline target of $650,000.
Puell pointed out that Bitcoin’s trajectory will depend heavily on external factors, such as monetary policy, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approach to cryptocurrencies, and potential macroeconomic shifts. He highlighted the potential significance of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which he likened to “a whole new cake on top of a cake,” rather than a mere bonus.
Preparing for a Market Top
Despite the optimism, Puell warned that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature suggests another bear market is inevitable. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced price drops of up to 70% from its all-time highs during bear markets. The eventual price floor, Puell explained, will depend on how high Bitcoin climbs before its next downturn.
As Bitcoin continues its journey, investors and analysts alike are closely watching the interplay between market dynamics and broader economic factors. Whether Bitcoin meets ARK Invest’s lofty year-end and long-term targets remains to be seen, but the potential for both growth and correction underscores the cryptocurrency’s volatile and evolving nature.
